Three senators remain undecided about seeking reelection in 2024.
Questions Remain for Undecided Incumbent Senators
After Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) announced Wednesday that he will retire at the end of his term, questions remain about three undecided incumbent senators up for reelection next year who have not made their plans clear.
Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Joe Manchin (D-WV), and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ)
Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Joe Manchin (D-WV), and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) have remained evasive about whether they will run again. While Sanders hails from deep blue Vermont, all eyes are on Manchin and Sinema, whose decisions could determine whether Republicans retake the chamber. Senate Democrats are defending a small two-seat majority.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
Sanders, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats, still has not indicated whether he intends to run for a fourth term.
The 82-year-old doesn’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon. Sanders is the chairman of the Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions, giving him broad jurisdiction over concerns at the center of his previous campaigns, such as workers’ rights, the cost of prescription drugs, and access to healthcare.
However, a debate about the age of political leaders has been building for months. It came to the forefront again a couple of weeks ago when Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) appeared to freeze for 30 seconds while answering questions from reporters, the second such incident this summer. If Sanders runs again, he will be 89 at the end of his fourth term.
For now, Sanders and his staff continue to fend off the reelection questions. The Vermont senator has indicated to reporters who ask him that he thinks it is a distraction.
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV)
The West Virginia Democrat has still not announced whether he will be running for reelection in 2024 in a ruby red state President Joe Biden lost by 40 points last cycle. Manchin has openly flirted with a third-party run for president in 2024. Weeks ago, he said he was considering changing his party affiliation from Democrat to independent.
Behind closed doors, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has encouraged him to run. Most Democrats recognize Manchin is perhaps the only Democrat who can win a statewide contest in West Virginia, a key to preserving the party’s control of the Senate. Manchin recently told the New York Times he would make a decision about his political future by the end of the year. If he intends to run again, he must inform the state by January.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee is eyeing Manchin’s seat as a top pickup opportunity next year to flip the Senate from Democratic to GOP control, attempting to frame his position as “attempts to rewrite history.”
Should Manchin decide to run, he could face popular Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) or Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV), who are currently competing in a Republican primary. A poll last week for the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce showed Justice beating Manchin handily, winning in a hypothetical Senate contest 51% to 38%. The poll also found that Manchin would narrowly lead Mooney 45% to 41%.
“I still don’t think he knows what he is going to do,” said a former aide of the senator, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “I think he’ll do exactly what he did last time: wait until December or January to make up his mind.”
Manchin has raised $1.3 million during the second quarter and has more than $10 million in the bank. That’s more than Justice, who raised $935,035 from 5,526 individual donors, and Mooney, who raised $411,192.76 in the second quarter.
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ)
Sinema has not yet said if she is running for a second term after leaving the Democratic Party late last year and becoming an independent. She was the first Democrat to win an Arizona seat in 30 years in 2018. She has spent most of the Biden presidency at odds with progressives on filibuster reform, corporate taxes, and other issues.
If she were to run, she could face a potential three-way race with Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), the progressive likely Democratic nominee who announced his run in January, and Kari Lake, a polarizing conservative who lost her election for governor last year. The state is 34% Republican, 34% independent, and 30% Democratic, according to Arizona data.
Lake has not yet launched her bid. If she runs, she will likely face off against Blake Masters, who recently indicated he’s preparing to run for the seat held by Sinema. The only Republican in the race so far, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, announced his candidacy in April but is considered an underdog who has yet to raise significant money.
Sinema has nearly $10.8 million in her bank account, almost three times more than Gallego. However, Gallego brought in $3.1 million from April 1 through June 30. Lamb reported raising $608,000 in the second quarter.
McConnell in May indicated Republicans are still assessing the Arizona Senate race and voiced some hesitation about whether the GOP wants to invest resources. In an interview with CNN in May, he emphasized that Republicans will likely wait to see what happens in the primary before they decide to engage.
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