STEFANIK MOUNTS ‘SHADOW CAMPAIGN’ FOR NEW YORK GOVERNOR AFTER UN LETDOWN

Following a sweeping loss for Democrats in 2024 that caused the Senate and White House to flip, the Senate battlefield for 2026 will be challenging for Democrats to regain control. Republicans hold a majority in the Senate, 53-47, including two independents, Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Angus King (I-ME), who caucus with Democrats.

Five current members of the lower chamber have launched bids to join the upper chamber in Washington following a large wave of retirements from sitting senators. 

Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) launched a bid to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) after he announced his retirement just days into President Donald Trump’s second term. Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) has also launched a bid to flip the seat, which is considered a “toss-up.”

Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) announced her candidacy for the open Minnesota Senate seat that is held by Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN), who announced her retirement early this year. 

Georgia is set to have a crowded primary against Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) after Gov. Bryan Kemp (R-GA) decided not to run when his term as governor ends. Rep. Buddy Carter (R-GA) announced his candidacy early on, but Reps. Rich McCormick (R-GA) and Mike Collins (R-GA) have considered bidding against their colleagues. 

The Illinois Senate race is also expected to be a crowded primary after longtime Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) announced his retirement following seven terms in the House and and five in the Senate. Reps. Robin Kelly (D-IL) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) have both launched bids since the senior senator announced his retirement. Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL) is expected to run from the other side of the aisle. 

Another one in the wave of retirements is Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH). Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) announced he was running for the upper chamber after holding a historically purple seat since 2018.  

Former Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) launched on Tuesday a second bid for Senate, as Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-TX) primary against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is contentious. 

There are 13 Senate Democrats up for reelection, with four competitive seats for which they will have to defend heavily: incumbent Ossoff in Georgia and three open seats in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. 

For Republicans, 22 lawmakers are up for reelection, with Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) rated as a competitive seat, along with Sen. Thom Tillis’ (R-NC) seat after he announced his retirement Sunday. Rep. Pat Harrigan’s (R-NC) name has been floated to run for Tillis’s seat, as former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) is expected to jump in from the other side. 

According to the Cook Political Report, there are 19 Republican and 19 Democratic-held governor’s races with elections in 2026. The “toss-up” races are in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.

Six current or former House members have launched gubernatorial bids, as a wave of governors will reach their term limits. 

Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-SD) jumped into the race Monday, after hinting for months, to be the next governor of South Dakota, as the sitting Gov. Larry Rhoden (R-SD) has yet to announce his future plans.

One of the first House members to jump into a gubernatorial race was Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), who would be taking the place of Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who ran for president in 2024 and is term-limited come 2026. Former Rep. David Jolly, a former Republican turned Democrat, will run against Donalds for a seat that is considered “solid Republican.”

Rep. John Rose (R-TN) announced his candidacy for governor to replace Gov. Bill Lee (R-TN), but Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) is expected to jump into the race as well. 

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) will be term-limited as he has gone head-to-head with Trump over the last few weeks following the ICE raids in Los Angeles. Former Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) jumped into the race to become governor of the largest state, with more expected, including former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Trump has said he would back Rep. Dan Meuser (R-PA) if he were to run against Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA), although Meuser has not made any announcements thus far. This comes after Sen. Dave McCormick (R-PA) beat incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) in the closest Senate race of 2024. 

Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) has entered what is considered a “toss-up” race to be Arizona’s next governor, although current Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) has not yet announced her plans. 

Along with Peters’ retirement in Michigan, the spot for the state’s next governor will also be open as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) has reached her term limit. Rep. John James (R-MI) jumped into the crowded race for the seat considered a “toss-up.” 

South Carolina is also expected to shape up to be a competitive governor’s race, as Reps. Ralph Norman (R-SC) and Nancy Mace (R-SC) are both heavily weighing bids. Norman told the Washington Examiner he is leaning toward running and is confident he could beat Mace.

“Competition is good, you give people a choice,” Norman said. “That’s what made the country great, and I love the competitive part.”

DON BACON WILL NOT SEEK REELECTION IN 2026 IN KEY SWING DISTRICT

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is planning her gubernatorial run against Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) after pulling her nomination for Trump’s Cabinet. The New York Republican is a close ally of Trump and has taken jabs at Hochul in recent months, as Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) also weighs a bid for governor.

Lastly, WisPolitics reported that Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-WI) said he would make a decision if he wants to launch a gubernatorial bid by the August recess.