A Mix Of Optimism And Foreboding Drive VA GOP’s Ground Game

Beth Campbell lives by a familiar motto in American politics: “If you don’t vote, don’t complain.” 

“My family always voted. I have always voted. I don’t know why you wouldn’t,” Campbell, Republican National Committeewoman for Tennessee and member of the RNC’s executive committee, told The Federalist in an interview this week. 

Campbell and crew are part of the Mighty American Strike Force, a group of devoted volunteers who, mostly at their own expense, travel to targeted battlegrounds and assist campaigns with everything from door-knocking and phone bank operations to social networking and running political rallies.

This weekend will be the Tennessee team’s first such trip to Virginia. They’ll be joined by some West Virginia conservatives, each understanding that the stakes for the commonwealth couldn’t be any higher. 

For the moment, Republicans run Virginia’s executive branch — governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. Democrats narrowly control  both chambers of the General Assembly. That all is very much subject to change on Nov. 4.

According to a new Commonwealth Poll, the key statewide races are tightening, thanks in no small part to the favored Democrat candidates imploding in their own nastiness. So ground game, as always, is critical in the battle for the Old Dominion. And money. Always money. 

New Jersey also has statewide races on the ballot next month. If Democrats win, liberals and their allies in corporate media will declare the victories a repudiation of President Donald Trump and his policies and an ominous sign for Republicans in next year’s midterms.

Grassroots ground gamers in Virginia tell The Federalist that Republicans have picked up the pace of late. But is it too little, too late? How are things really going? Depends who you ask. 

“There is a clear path to victory, and the early vote totals look good as well,” a Virginia GOP official said. 

“Frankly, Virginia is in a a lot of trouble,” one county leader said. 

‘It Has Energized Them’

It’s been a good month in Arlington for the local GOP. The Potomac River county standing in the massive shadows of D.C. is dominated by Democrats, many of them working for the bloated federal government across the river and in Arlington itself. 

Matthew Hurtt, chairman of the Arlington GOP. tells The Federalist that a series of abhorrent acts by Democrats has energized northern Virginia conservatives. 

At a late-August Arlington School Board meeting, where the leftist members doubled down on a policy that allows males “identifying” as females to use school bathrooms, a pro-trans demonstrator held up a racist sign declaring, “Hey Winsome. If trans can’t share your bathroom, then Blacks can’t share my water fountain.” The target was Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, Republican candidate for governor, who is black. Her opponent, far-left Democrat Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger, has refused to directly answer whether male students insisting they are females should be able to access girls’ bathrooms and compete in girls sports. 

Arlington’s policy gave free rein to registered sex offender Richard Cox, a biological male claiming to be a woman, to use girls high school bathrooms where he allegedly exposed himself to women and children. 

Hurtt said the assassination of conservative icon Charlie Kirk also galvanized Arlington County conservatives. 

“We just raised the most in a single month online in October, and we’re only on Oct. 20,” the local GOP leader said in an interview with The Federalist earlier this week. “From that racist sign to Charlie Kirk to Jay Jones, it has energized them and they have gone out and engaged in more voter turnout activity. That’s what I’m seeing.” 

Hurtt referred to former Virginia delegate and political assassination fantasizer Jay Jones, the Democrat running for attorney general. Jones hit a huge political pothole when his 2022 text messages detailing how he would put “two bullets in the head” of former Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert came to light. Jones also reportedly wished the speaker’s “wife could watch her own child die in her arms so that Gilbert might reconsider his political views” on gun owner rights, according to a source cited by National Review. The news outlet first reported on the violent texts. 

How can we trust Jay Jones to prosecute an MS-13 gang member after he said he wanted to put 2 bullets in an opponents head?

How can we trust Jay Jones to console a grieving parent after he said he wanted to see a mother hold her dying children or stand with law enforcement after… pic.twitter.com/IQK8TuJsuk

— Jason Miyares (@JasonMiyaresVA) October 17, 2025

By the Numbers

The races are narrowing heading into the homestretch. 

This week’s Commonwealth Poll of registered voters shows Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares with a 45 percent to 42 percent lead over Jones. The race has shifted a net 9 points since the September poll. 

The lieutenant governor’s race has gotten skinny jeans tight, with Richmond leftist state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi holding a 1-point lead (44% to 43%) over Republican John Reid. 

Meanwhile, the gap narrowed a bit in the governor’s race. The poll shows Spanberger outpacing Earle-Sears 49 percent to 42 percent, down from the Democrat’s 9-point lead last month. The left seems a smidge more nervous in recent days. 

Hurtt, however, said Virginia’s extremely long early-voting season — nearly a month and a half — favors the Democrats. And liberals are spending big to not only wrest executive branch power from Republicans but to expand their slim advantage in the legislature.

“If Virginia didn’t have such a long early-voting period this would be a more competitive race,” the Arlington GOP leader said. “You just wonder how many votes were in for Team Blue before people split tickets after the Jones text messages.” 

‘Major Spike’

Scott Pio, chairman of the Loudoun County Republican Committee, told The Federalist the Jones texts and other Democrat candidate scandals are having “zero impact on 50 percent of Loudoun voters.” The Northern Virginia county gave Kamala Harris 57 percent of the vote to Donald Trump’s 40 percent in last November’s election. Virginia’s northern section also is home to a significant number of foreign-born citizens, which make up approximately 28 percent of the population, according to the Northern Virginia Regional Commission. Election integrity is a huge concern for Northern Virginia conservatives, who have seen noncitizens achieve the right to vote in local elections in neighboring Washington, D.C. 

Pio said Charlie Kirk’s assassination has fired up the base more than the Virginia Dem scandals. 

New: Virginia teens are greeting Loudoun County voters at the polls and asking them to vote for school board candidates who would restore girl only and boy only bathrooms and locker rooms in Loudoun County Public Schools.

Story: https://t.co/yXefPstcKK pic.twitter.com/BgOFzf2eMR

— Nick Minock (@NickMinock) October 20, 2025

Ken Nunnenkamp, executive director of the Republican Party of Virginia, says the Jones scandals, including the Democrat’s reckless driving charge and “so many other displays of Virginia Democrats’ moral bankruptcy only confirmed what many Virginians already knew.”

“By refusing to call on Jay Jones to drop out of the race, and by calling on her supporters to ‘let your rage fuel you,’ Abigail Spanberger was showing us her true colors, and revealing that she doesn’t really care about denouncing political violence, she only cares about power,” Nunnenkamp wrote in an email responding to The Federalist’s questions. 

What does all of that mean at the polls, particularly in early voting? The state GOP director said early returns show “very strong” returns for Republicans, on par with or perhaps better than in 2021, when Republican Glenn Youngkin won the governor’s race, breaking the Democrats’ decade-plus stranglehold on statewide offices. As of Tuesday, Virginia state elections officials reported some 707,000 Virginians have already voted, smashing the 457,000 ballots cast at the same time in 2021.

“In the first few days of early voting we saw a major spike in areas that voted Republican in 2022 and 2024, which indicates to us that our messaging on early voting is really having its desired effect,” Nunnenkamp said. “Republicans are now starting to understand as well that banking as many votes as possible before Election Day is the surest path to victory.”

That was a big part of the 2024 secret sauce that put Republicans back in the White House and in control of congress. President Trump signed on to early- and absentee-voting, with the RNC and grassroots groups pushing the bank-the-vote message. On Election Day, the efforts helped neutralize traditional early-vote advantages for Democrats in the battleground states.

‘2021 on Steroids’

But the 2024 presidential election had Trump on the ballot and high energy in the base. Now what? 

“The biggest problems that we’re having right now is that our volunteers are not as enthusiastic as they were last year. There’s a little complacency for sure,” Pio said in an interview with The Federalist. “Trump’s in so they’re happy. They don’t need to help with local elections.” 

Complacency is a killer in off-year elections. Republicans hope it’s not contagious heading into next year’s midterms. 

“If it turns out to be a Democratic sweep, Virginia will not be the same as it’s been the last two decades,” the Loudoun County Republican chief said. “A majority of voters don’t know how much that sweep would affect their lives.” 

So, the ground game becomes even more critical in the pursuit of making up ground. 

Photo: WTVR CBS 6/Youtube

Despite the challenges, Pio said Loudoun County Republicans have created a number of technological tools that “no one has ever done before, at least in Virginia politics.” He said the local GOP is leveraging “a lot more technology” for mass communication, mass outreach and mass voter contact. They’re hoping to build on last year’s success, when the Loudoun County Republican Committee and its grassroots partners recorded a 90 percent return rate for absentee ballots, up from around 20 percent in previous elections, Pio said. 

Hurtt said the Arlington GOP’s goal is to push out some 25,000 sample ballots to households. That would be about 3,500 more than in the Youngkin race in 2021. He said the recent uptick in fundraising is helping he local party maximize its efforts. 

“From what I’ve been hearing over the last eight to 10 weeks, Republicans have clued in on a number of group chats to get voters out,” Hurt said. “I’ve said that we are at 2021 on steroids.”

‘No Santa Claus in Politics’

But cash is king in politics, even among the “No Kings” crowd. Democrats have mostly held the advantage on the fundraising front, but Republican campaigns are seeing a cash infusion from the party and committees over the past few weeks. The Republican Attorneys General Association earlier this month dropped another $2.5 million in backing Miyares’ re-election bid. That money bomb was on top of the $2 million RAGA dropped on Virginia’s AG race just days before. 

The association says it has poured more than $8.5 million into the contest, with the goal particularly of late “to inform voters who the real Jay Jones is.” In addition, RAGA is running a communications, polling, and outreach campaign in Virginia, including the “seven-figure Secure Your Vote program in partnership with the RSLC [Republican State Leadership Committee], making this the largest Republican GOTV effort in Virginia history,” according to the organization. 

The Republican Governors Association has pumped in at least $5 million into Earle-Sears’ race. Nunnenkamp said he’s not at liberty to discuss figures, but he says the Republican National Committee “has been an invaluable partner” to the Virginia GOP. He said the RNC has made a “major investment” in vote chasing and in legal operations through its election integrity unit. 

But Virginia grassroots conservatives who spoke to The Federalist sound underwhelmed by state and national party financial support, particularly in critical local races that will determine control of the General Assembly. 

“As it’s always been, there’s no Santa Claus in politics and there never will be,” Pio said. 

While momentum may be shifting, some conservative leaders who spoke to The Federalist said they’re concerned about a lack of leadership in the party and a missing sense of urgency early on — particularly in the Earle-Sears campaign. One local leader said there has been a “disconnect,” particularly between the RNC and the state GOP. 

If Republicans don’t wake up and come out to vote in big numbers, “Virginia is in a lot of trouble,” Pio warned. Democrats controlling all of Virginia government would be disastrous for the commonwealth and its people, Pio said. 

As Beth Campbell put it, “If you don’t vote, you can’t complain.” In politics, if you lose no one’s going to listen to you anyway.  

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Matt Kittle is a senior elections correspondent for The Federalist. An award-winning investigative reporter and 30-year veteran of print, broadcast, and online journalism, Kittle previously served as the executive director of Empower Wisconsin.

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