D.C.’s Murder Rate Is Over 500% Higher Than The Average State

Democrats insist Washington, D.C., doesn’t face a crime problem.

On a podcast last week, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D–NY, claimed, “I walk around all the time. I wake up early in the morning … And I feel perfectly safe.” He dismissed Republican concerns about safety as “full of it,” but, of course, Schumer doesn’t go anywhere without his security detail. In a similar vein, D.C. Councilmember Charles Allen called the federalization of law enforcement “unnecessary, unwarranted,” and the D.C. Council emphasized that crime rates are at “the lowest rates we’ve seen in 30 years.”

Yet even MSNBC host Joe Scarborough admitted that Democrats privately acknowledge the problem. On his show last week, he said Democrats had called him in recent days, saying, “Washington should have gotten involved years ago. This place is dangerous, it’s a mess, it’s a wreck.” Scarborough noted that those same Democrats then rush to Twitter to attack Republicans, denouncing federal intervention as “the worst outrage of all time.”

Those who have visited a CVS or Walgreens in D.C. can see the reality: Everything sits behind plexiglass. That isn’t surprising, since the city’s property crime rate runs 49 percent higher than the most crime-ridden state.

So what do the numbers really show?

First, the debate centers only on crimes reported to police — which are far fewer than the crimes actually committed. Nationally, victims report about 40 percent of violent crimes and 30 percent of property crimes. When criminals face little risk of being caught or punished, reporting drops even further. Given D.C.’s high crime levels, the gap between actual crime and reported crime is likely to be far wider than the national average.

Second, the D.C. police department itself faces serious credibility issues. For years, the police union and individual officers have accused leadership of manipulating statistics — downgrading felonies to misdemeanors and misclassifying incidents to keep them out of the official totals reported to the city and the FBI. For example, one officer alleged that a case of domestic violence in which an individual received a deep cut was reclassified by a captain as “sick person to the hospital,” when the officer had originally categorized it as an “assault with a dangerous weapon.” Residents also complain that even crimes resulting in felony convictions sometimes disappear from D.C.’s recorded numbers.

According to the union, the problem is only getting worse, even as city leaders boast about supposed drops in crime.

But let’s put those concerns aside and turn to the FBI’s final 2023 crime data. Even by reported numbers alone, D.C.’s crime rates remain shockingly high compared to those of the rest of the country. Whether compared to states — since many Democrats want D.C. to become the 51st state — or to cities, the district stands out for all the wrong reasons.

When measured against states, D.C.’s violent crime rate was 54 percent higher than New Mexico, the most dangerous state, and 220 percent higher than the national average. Against cities, D.C. outpaced every one of the 20 largest cities and ranked second highest among the 25 most populous.

The murder rate looks even worse. D.C.’s murder rate ran 169 percent higher than Louisiana’s, the deadliest state, and an astonishing 523 percent higher than that of the average state. No city in the top 20 came close. Philadelphia had the second-highest murder rate in that group, with 26 murders per 100,000 people, yet D.C.’s rate was 50 percent higher. Among the 25 largest cities, D.C. ranked second overall.

Robbery paints the bleakest picture. D.C.’s robbery rate was 370 percent higher than Maryland, the worst state, and a staggering 955 percent higher than that of the average state. Among the 25 most populous cities, D.C. ranked first in robberies. Across all 796 U.S. cities with more than 50,000 residents, D.C. still ranked third.

While D.C. isn’t setting record rape or aggravated assault rates, it is 191 percent and 140 percent above the average rate for states.

While Democrats continue to deny the crime crisis, the D.C. business community has cried out for “urgent” help. “We . . . are writing to express our deep concern about the alarming increase in violent crime across our city,” members of D.C.’s business trade association community wrote to the D.C. mayor and city council last year. “Washington, D.C., is quickly becoming a national outlier in rising crime, and the trends are alarming.”

“Crime is out of control, and our officers are stretched beyond their limits,” D.C. police union Chair Gregg Pemberton warned on Aug. 11. 

But the new FBI agents and National Guard soldiers can make a real difference.

And the initial crime data is promising. In the first seven days since Trump announced federal control, compared to the seven days before, the D.C. police union reported robberies dropped 46 percent, carjackings plunged 83 percent, car thefts fell 21 percent, violent crime declined by 22 percent, and assaults with a deadly weapon decreased by 6 percent.

The evidence makes clear that Washington, D.C., faces one of the worst crime problems in the nation. This is true even if one ignores the claims that D.C. is manipulating its crime numbers and that the large gap between reported and total crime is likely larger for D.C.

Democrats may downplay the crisis, but the data show that the district outpaces every state and nearly every major city in violent and property crime, murder, and robbery. Until Democrats confront reality instead of dismissing concerns, residents and businesses will continue to pay the price.

John R. Lott Jr. is the president of the Crime Prevention Research Center. He served as the senior advisor for research and statistics in the Office of Justice Programs and the Office of Legal Policy in the U.S. Department of Justice during 2020-21.