The lawsuit could turn into a lose-lose situation for Newsom, political expert Ryan Waite told the Washington Examiner.

“Like many things for Governor Newsom these days, this is a tightrope act: He’s trying to appeal to a broader national electorate, including moderates and swing voters, while maintaining credibility as a reliable progressive and consistent Trump critic,” he said. “This lawsuit from the Trump administration is a perfect example of how hard that balancing act is.”

The Trump administration sued the California Department of Education on Wednesday, accusing it of violating federal laws against sex-based discrimination. The lawsuit seeks to overturn policies that have allowed transgender girls in the state to compete against female athletes, which the Department of Justice called “illegal” and “demeaning” and claimed signal to girls “that their opportunities and achievements are secondary to accommodating boys.” 

“Not only is it ‘deeply unfair,’ it is also illegal under federal law,” Attorney General Pam Bondi said. “This Department of Justice will continue to fight to protect equal opportunities for women and girls in sports.” 

Waite said if Newsom “folds” on the issue, he risks even more backlash from the Left, with calls of betrayal and disappointment. 

“Folding now would deepen that split and damage his credibility with the voters he’ll need in a primary,” he said. “But if he fights the lawsuit, it raises another problem. Trump’s Justice Department is literally using Newsom’s own ‘deeply unfair’ quote against him. If he now mounts a full-throated defense, he risks looking like he was pandering when he made those earlier comments to appeal to centrists and independents who are skeptical about transgender participation in girls sports. That invites charges of hypocrisy and insincerity, exactly the kind of branding that can haunt a national candidate.”

For now, the governor’s press office is responding to the lawsuit by pointing out it did not mention Newsom by name. 

“Since a lot of folks on here have become legal experts in the last few hours, would point out the Governor is not named as a party in this lawsuit,” according to a social media post from the press office. “Actual facts: The California Department of Education (CDE) and CIF are both *independent* from the Newsom admin, and they are following existing state law — a law that was passed in 2013, signed by Governor Jerry Brown, and in line with 21 other states. No court has adopted the interpretation of Title IX that is being advanced by the Trump Admin, and neither the Governor, nor they, get to wave a magic wand and override it — unlike Donald Trump, California follows the law, not personal opinions.”

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Jeff Le, managing principal at 100 Mile Strategies and former deputy Cabinet secretary to Brown, told the Washington Examiner that the lawsuit creates a dilemma for Newsom. 

“It is possible the Governor will thread the needle that he supports the state’s right for independent bodies to administer the law and still personally oppose the practice,” Le said. “A key question will be how state Attorney General Rob Bonta’s office positions its defense with the California Department of Education and how State Superintendent Tony Thurmond, a gubernatorial aspirant and candidate, engages with the Governor’s Office.”

“Governor Newsom has made efforts to point to how his administration has supported health rights, mental wellness, and services to transgender community members during his Sacramento tenure. But his comments on sports earlier this year raised concerns among progressive stakeholders and members of the legislature,” he added.

Los Angeles-based political consultant Matthew Klink warned that it could backfire if Newsom tried to play both sides.

“Governor Newsom is in a pickle on the men playing in women’s sports issue,” he told the Washington Examiner. “As evidenced by his trip to South Carolina, he fancies himself a 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, which means that he needs to embrace progressive policy priorities in the primary and then, should he get the nomination, run back toward the middle in a general election.” 

Newsom spent the past two days in South Carolina, meeting with voters in eight deep-red counties. It is widely believed his trip to the East Coast is a strong indicator he will run for the presidential nomination. 

Newsom “can’t talk his way out of this issue,” Klink said.

“He faces a choice of which group he will anger — progressive groups that control his path to the nomination, or the Trump administration, which controls a big checkbook that California needs for education, not to mention rebuilding after the disastrous Los Angeles fires,” he added. 

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But Dustin Siggins, founder of Proven Media Solutions, said even though Newsom is getting pushback now, it may not be as big of a factor in the future. 

“The lawsuit puts Governor Newsom in a tough spot, but he’s already a prime target by partisans on both sides,” Siggins told the Washington Examiner. “Realistically, the short-term memory issue Americans have means that this issue may not be front and center for many of his target voters in a possible primary. Additionally, Newsom’s position as a prominent governor AND his proactive personal positioning may mean he can drive his desired narrative for the years between now and the first primary votes.”