Hochul leads early field in New York gubernatorial race
new York Governor Kathy Hochul is currently leading the race for the 2026 gubernatorial election by at least 20 points against potential Republican challengers, according to a Siena College poll. Specifically, she outpaces Rep. Mike Lawler by 20 points, Rep. Elise Stefanik by 23 points, adn Bruce Blakeman by 25 points. However, despite these leads, a significant portion of registered voters-between 27% and 31%-remain undecided, indicating that Hochul has not secured majority support.
The poll highlights that while Hochul enjoys a lead, only 37% of voters expressed a desire to reelect her, with 55% preferring someone else. Additionally, her favorability rating stands at 42%, with slightly more respondents (47%) rating her unfavorably. The general sentiment among New Yorkers suggests pessimism about the state’s direction, with half of those surveyed believing it is headed in the wrong direction.
as the election approaches, several Republican figures are considering candidacies, but none have formally launched campaigns yet, although Stefanik has indicated her intention to run. The poll surveyed 800 registered voters in New York and has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
Hochul leads early field in New York gubernatorial race despite majority wanting ‘someone else’
Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) is currently leading all declared and undeclared challengers by at least 20 points in early polling previewing New York’s 2026 gubernatorial race, even though the majority of registered voters signaled they want “someone else” to replace the incumbent.
Hochul leads Republicans Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) by 20 points at 44-24%, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) by 23 points at 47-24%, and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman by 25 points at 44-19%, according to a Siena College survey released Tuesday.
Despite Hochul’s early lead, the pollster pointed out that the governor has yet to clinch majority support.
“While the early leads seem large, Hochul is not hitting the ‘magic’ 51% mark against any of these opponents, and in each matchup, between a quarter and a third of voters wasn’t able to choose between the two candidates,” Siena College Research Institute Director Don Levy said.
When asked about each hypothetical matchup between Hochul and the three Republicans, between 27% and 31% of respondents said they remain undecided.
Lawler, Stefanik, and Blakeman are all considering a gubernatorial bid to replace the Democratic governor in New York, but none have launched their campaigns yet.
Stefanik, who remains the poll’s Republican primary front-runner to challenge Hochul, indicated on Monday that she will run for governor but did not reveal when she would make the announcement.
Meanwhile, Democratic challengers are far behind Hochul. Only 10% of Democratic voters would vote for Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) and 12% would back Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado (D-NY), compared to Hochul’s 49% support.
Still, voters are not too interested in her reelection. Only 37% said they would reelect Hochul, compared to 55% who said they would prefer someone else in the race. Less than 10% said they didn’t know or had no opinion when asked.
The incumbent’s favorability rating sits at 42%, compared to 47% unfavorable, down slightly from May. Her job rating has a similar five-point margin, with 50% approval and 45% disapproval.
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With Hochul in charge of New York, voters tend to be more pessimistic about the direction in which the state is headed. Half of respondents said New York is headed in the wrong direction, while 37% say it’s on the right track. The gap is now much wider than May’s three-point margin at 46-43%.
Siena College surveyed 800 voters registered in New York between June 23 and 26. The poll has an overall margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
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