Mamdani overcomes Cuomo in final polling before NYC mayoral primary
Mamdani overcomes Cuomo in final polling before NYC mayoral primary day
New York State Representative Zohran Mamdani has overcome former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo in a new ranked choice poll released on the eve of New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary.
Mamdani leads Cuomo by four points, 52% to 48%, in the eighth and final round of a ranked choice simulation, according to a new Emerson College survey. No other mayoral candidates made it to the final round. Ranked choice voting allows voters to select up to five candidates in order of preference.
The new results may spell trouble for Cuomo, whose numbers largely remained stagnant in the past several months of polling.
“Over five months, Mamdani’s support has surged from 1% to 32%, while Cuomo finishes near where he began,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement. “In the ranked choice simulation, Mamdani gains 18 points compared to Cuomo’s 12, putting him ahead in the final round for the first time in an Emerson poll.”
The initial round showed Cuomo leading Mamdani by two points (36% to 34%).
While the socialist candidate has overtaken the former governor in the ranked choice category, Cuomo is leading with 35% support overall compared to Mamdani’s 32%. Meanwhile, New York City Comptroller Brad Lander and New York City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams stand at 13% and 8% percent, respectively.
Additionally, Cuomo leads Mamdani 36% to 31% among voters who plan to vote on Tuesday or those who have not yet voted.
The poll’s findings are consistent with a Marist poll released last week showing Cuomo winning the primary race but Mamdani catching up to the frontrunner.
In recent weeks, Mamdani and Lander endorsed each other in an effort for voters to support “anybody but Cuomo.” Mamdani has also received some high-profile endorsements, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), a fellow progressive socialist.
The Emerson poll also shows Cuomo and Mamdani attracting different age and racial demographics.
For instance, Democratic voters under 50 back Mamdani by a 2:1 margin, while voters aged 50–59 (63% to 37%) and those over 60 (56% to 44%) support Cuomo.
Also, Cuomo is performing better with Hispanic voters (60% to 40%) and black voters (62% to 38%). Meanwhile, Mamdani is attracting white voters (61% to 39%) and Asian voters (79% to 21%) to his socialist campaign platform, which includes rent freezes.
There is also a gender divide between the two contenders, with more men supporting Mamdani (56% to 44%) and more women backing Cuomo (52% to 48%).
The Emerson College poll surveyed 833 New York City Democratic primary voters who are likely to vote and those who voted early, with a margin of error of +/-3.3%. The ranked choice voting simulation’s final round surveyed a sample size of 729, with a margin of error of +/-3.6%.
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