Impact of RFK Jr.’s Independent Run on Trump and Biden in Latest Polls
RFK Jr.’s Independent Run Shakes Up 2024 Presidential Race
Former Democratic candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has thrown a wrench into the 2024 presidential race by announcing his independent run. With President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in a statistical polling tie, the question arises: who will lose votes to RFK Jr.?
Recent polls attempt to answer this question, but the answer remains unclear. Two polls suggest that Trump is most affected by RFK Jr.’s independent bid, while the third poll indicates that RFK Jr. takes more crucial independent votes away from Biden than from Trump.
A USA Today/Suffolk University poll released on Monday reveals that in a four-way race between Biden, Trump, RFK Jr., and Cornel West, Biden and Trump are tied at 37%. However, Trump loses more voters to RFK Jr. than Biden does. Among the 1,000 registered voters surveyed, 13% support RFK Jr., who draws potential Republican voters away from Trump by a 2-1 margin. On the other hand, leftist political activist Cornel West takes votes away from Biden, but his impact is minimal at 4% in the poll.
The same poll shows that RFK Jr.’s independent run costs Trump a narrow lead.
A Messenger/HarrisX poll released on Tuesday similarly indicates that Trump loses ground when RFK Jr.’s independent run is factored in. However, Trump’s lead over Biden only suffers a one-point drop. According to the poll, Trump leads Biden 45% to 41%, but when the independent candidates are included, Trump drops to 38% and Biden falls to 35%, while RFK Jr. maintains 13% support. Dritan Nesho, CEO and chief pollster at HarrisX, highlights that RFK Jr. pulls equal numbers of 2020 Trump and Biden voters, but it’s the crucial independent voters that should concern the Trump campaign.
However, the findings from HarrisX are challenged by a Harvard/Harris poll, which shows that RFK Jr. leads Biden among independent voters, while Trump captures the majority of the independent vote.
The Harvard/Harris survey of over 2,000 registered voters conducted on October 18 and 19 paints a bleaker picture for Biden when considering RFK Jr.’s independent bid. Trump leads a four-way race with 39%, followed by Biden at 31%, RFK Jr. at 18%, and Cornel West at 3%. Among the undecided voters, 41% lean toward Trump, 34% lean toward Biden, and 21% lean toward RFK Jr.
The RFK Jr. shakeup has caused a stir between the Trump and DeSantis campaigns. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis believes that RFK Jr. would hurt Trump’s chances more than his own if he were the nominee. DeSantis emphasizes his anti-Fauci and anti-lockdown platform, which he believes would attract anti-lockdown and anti-Fauci voters away from RFK Jr.
Kennedy conundrum: Ron DeSantis says he’d be stronger against RFK Jr. in a general election than Donald Trump because of his anti-Fauci and anti-lockdown platform.
“He would hurt Trump,” DeSantis says of Kennedy at a New Hampshire campaign stop. pic.twitter.com/KUOAejWx8H
— Stephanie Murray (@stephanie_murr) October 24, 2023
The Trump campaign responded to DeSantis’ comments, with chief spokesman Steven Cheung calling DeSantis’ take “uninformed.”
Currently, Trump holds a significant lead in the GOP primary, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average, with 59.1% compared to DeSantis’ 12.6%. The average also shows Trump leading Biden by less than one percentage point.
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How does RFK Jr.’s independent run impact Biden’s support in the 2024 presidential race according to the Harvard/Harris Poll?
Rel=”noopener”>Harvard/Harris Poll released on Wednesday. This poll suggests that RFK Jr.’s independent run has a more significant impact on Biden’s support than Trump’s. In a head-to-head matchup between Biden and Trump, Biden holds a narrow lead of 47% to 45%. However, when RFK Jr. is included as an independent candidate, Biden’s support drops to 38%, while Trump’s remains stable at 45%. RFK Jr. attracts 10% of the vote in this poll. Co-director of the Harvard/Harris Poll Mark Penn notes that RFK Jr. primarily takes votes away from Biden from the left-leaning independent electorate, posing a challenge for the Biden campaign to maintain strong support among independent voters.
These conflicting poll results showcase the uncertainty surrounding RFK Jr.’s impact on the 2024 presidential race. While all three polls indicate that RFK Jr.’s independent run affects both Biden and Trump to some degree, the degree of impact varies. It is clear that RFK Jr. has the potential to sway voters from both sides, but the key battleground lies with the crucial independent voters who could determine the outcome of the election.
RFK Jr.’s decision to run as an independent candidate adds an interesting twist to the 2024 presidential race. His stance on key issues, as well as his family legacy, may attract voters who are dissatisfied with the two major party candidates. Furthermore, his unique position as both a Kennedy and an outsider allows him to appeal to a wide range of voters across party lines.
It is still early in the election cycle, and much can change between now and the 2024 presidential election. The impact of RFK Jr.’s independent run on the final outcome remains uncertain. However, one thing is clear: his entry into the race has shaken up the political landscape and introduced a new dynamic that could heavily influence the battle between Biden and Trump for the presidency.
As the race progresses, it will be interesting to see how RFK Jr.’s independent run evolves and how it ultimately affects the strategies and alliances of both the Democratic and Republican parties. Only time will tell whether RFK Jr. can sustain his support and emerge as a viable contender in the 2024 presidential race. Until then, the uncertainty surrounding his candidacy will continue to be a focal point of political discussions and analysis.
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