Trump’s national lead in the latest presidential polls reaches a new peak.
Former President Donald Trump’s Lead in Republican Primary Grows
Former President Donald Trump’s massive lead in the Republican primary has grown even larger, according to the latest Real Clear Politics polling average.
Trump, who has enjoyed a lead in the polls since announcing his candidacy in November 2022, is currently sitting at 58.8% in the national RCP average, a new high for the former president as he faces a crowded field of GOP challengers. Trump leads his closest challenger, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who sits at 12.5%, by nearly 50 percentage points as DeSantis has fallen more than ten percentage points in the polling average since early June.
Those trailing behind Trump and DeSantis are:
- Tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (7.5%)
- Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (5.0%)
- Former Vice President Mike Pence (4.1%)
- Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (2.3%)
- Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina (2.3%)
North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, who both qualified for the first GOP debate last month, are both polling below 1%, according to the RCP average.
In each of the latest three polls, which came from Emerson, Yahoo News, and Morning Consult, Trump polled at 59%, while Harvard-Harris and Economist/YouGov polls taken earlier last week put Trump at 57% and 55%, respectively. DeSantis’ best showing nationally came in the Economist/YouGov poll, which has shown him at 16% in each of its last three polls. Ramaswamy hit double digits at 10% in the Morning Consult poll and came within two percentage points of DeSantis in the Harvard-Harris poll.
The positive polling for Trump also transfers to a hypothetical general election matchup with President Joe Biden as Trump has taken over the lead, beating Biden 45.1% to 44.6% nationally.
Trump’s decision to skip the first Republican debate appears to have had no effect on his polling nationally, and the former president will also skip the second debate next week, opting instead to speak to striking auto workers in Detroit.
It remains unclear whether Trump will lose support in the polls for his latest comments on abortion, which were harshly criticized by many conservatives. Trump was interviewed by journalist Kristen Welker on “Meet the Press,” telling the journalist that he thinks it was “a terrible mistake” for Republican states to pass six-week abortion bans, also known as heartbeat bills.
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While Trump enjoys a nearly 50 percentage point lead nationally, his support in Iowa, the first caucus state in the GOP primary, remains under 50%. As reported last week, Trump stands at 46.0% in Iowa, and DeSantis holds second place at 15.8%, according to the latest RCP average. Scott (9.0%) and Haley (7.0%) got a recent boost in the state, coming in third and fourth place. Ramaswamy (6.5%), Pence (3.5%), Christie (3.5%), and Burgum (2.5%) round out the polling of candidates who hit above 2% in Iowa.
How does Trump’s current lead in the national RCP average compare to his previous polling averages since announcing his candidacy in November 2022?
Average, according to the latest Real Clear Politics poll. This marks a significant shift in the political landscape as Trump’s popularity continues to soar.
Since announcing his candidacy in November 2022, Trump has maintained a steady lead in the polls. However, his current lead at 58.8% in the national RCP average is a new high for the former president. Despite facing a crowded field of GOP challengers, Trump has managed to maintain a comfortable lead over his closest competitor, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who sits at 12.5%.
The significant margin between Trump and DeSantis showcases Trump’s dominance within the Republican primary. It is worth noting that DeSantis has experienced a decline in his polling average, falling more than ten percentage points since early June. This downturn has allowed Trump to widen the gap and solidify his position as the frontrunner.
Other candidates trailing behind Trump and DeSantis include tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 7.5%, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley at 5.0%, former Vice President Mike Pence at 4.1%, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie at 2.3%, and Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, also at 2.3%.
Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, who both participated in the first GOP debate last month, are polling below 1% according to the RCP average. This reinforces the dominance of Trump and DeSantis within the Republican field.
Recent polls, including those conducted by Emerson, Yahoo News, Morning Consult, Harvard-Harris, and Economist/YouGov, consistently show Trump’s support at around 59%. DeSantis’ strongest performance came in the Economist/YouGov poll, where he reached 16% support. Ramaswamy also made a notable impact, reaching double digits at 10% in the Morning Consult poll and showing a close race with DeSantis in the Harvard-Harris poll.
Moreover, the positive polling for Trump extends to a hypothetical general election matchup against President Joe Biden. Recent polling data indicates that Trump has taken the lead over Biden by a slim margin of 45.1% to 44.6% in the national average. This further underscores Trump’s enduring popularity and ability to rally support even outside the Republican primary.
As the primary season continues, it remains to be seen if Trump can maintain his commanding lead and secure the Republican nomination. Nevertheless, his growing support within the party is indicative of his strong appeal and influence among Republican voters. The road to the Republican nomination is still long, but Trump’s lead suggests that he remains a prominent figure in American politics.
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