Jon Tester could become do-or-die vote in Senate that halts Biden’s legislative agenda

Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) is one of several senators in for a fight during his 2024 reelection bid, as the Democrat will be mounting a bid in a heavily Republican state.

Tester’s position as a vulnerable Democrat makes his vote key for President Joe Biden‘s agenda in the 51-49 Senate, where Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) tends to vote against some of the president’s more liberal policies.

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The Montana senator could be the crucial vote Biden needs for his picks for the head of the Federal Aviation Administration and for the ambassador to India to be approved by the upper chamber. Both Phil Washington and Eric Garcetti have been under intense scrutiny, and their confirmations by the Senate have not been locked in.

With the Senate at a de facto 49-49 split, due to the hospitalizations of Sens. John Fetterman (D-PA) and Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), endangered senators in the Democratic caucus, including Tester, Manchin, and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), all need to vote in line for Biden to get nominees and legislation approved.

Tester recently joined Manchin in a vote for a measure with Senate Republicans to block a rule by the Labor Department that allows investment managers to consider factors other than achieving the highest return when making investments. The rule allows managers to consider environmental and social governance while making decisions, which Manchin slammed as prioritizing a “liberal policy agenda” rather than focusing on increasing people’s wealth.

Tester was more in line with the Democratic caucus in the previous Congress than Manchin and Sinema were, but as the Montana senator’s 2024 reelection bid draws near, he may be a do-or-die senator in a similar way the two centrists are.

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Manchin, Sinema, and Tester all face difficult reelection bids next year, with Tester and Manchin representing states that overwhelmingly voted Republican in the 2020 presidential election and are poised to do so again in 2024. Manchin has not announced a reelection bid.

The Montana Democrat’s most likely challengers include the state’s two Republican House members, its governor, and its attorney general. He won two of his three elections by razor-thin margins, and 2024 will be a test of whether he can replicate his previous electoral magic.