How The Ohio Senate Primary Will Test Trump’s Relevance In The GOP

Tim PearceApril 26, 2022

Author and venture capitalist J.D. Vance may be on the verge of an upset victory in Ohio’s Republican primary to replace retiring Senator Rob Portman (R).

In the final weeks of the campaign, Vance received a shot of energy and a cash infusion of about $5 million after former President Donald Trump endorsed the author of “Hillbilly Elegy” on Good Friday.

For most of the race, Vance was a solid, if distant, third-place runner in the primary, but new polling — albeit, from a pro-Vance super PAC — now shows him with a sizable lead over former Ohio state treasurer Josh Mandel, who had been leading the pack in recent weeks.

For most of the campaign, Mandel dueled businessman Mike Gibbons for the title of frontrunner. Vance overtook Gibbons for second place following a particularly heated exchange at a March debate in which Mandel and Gibbons stood chest to chest and appeared to threaten one another. Afterward, accusations flew between both campaigns over which candidate called the other a “p****” on stage.

Gibbons’s public support plummeted eight points in the next independent poll while Mandel and Vance both enjoyed what was then their best polling of the race.

Though Vance did enjoy a surge following the dust-up between his opponents, his odds at winning still seemed like a long shot. That is, until Trump endorsed him on Good Friday, slighting Mandel, the candidate who has arguably done the most public campaigning for Trump’s support during the race. Mandel’s campaign website still leads with the three pillars of “pro-God,” “pro-gun,” and “pro-Trump.”

The May 3 primary is this election cycle’s earliest Senate contest and will test the weight of the former president’s brand and the weight of his voice in the Republican Party. Trump’s pick of the underdog Vance, though risking a greater embarrassment, could also signal a greater projection of influence depending on the outcome of the primary.

Like Mandel, Vance jockeyed for Trump’s support during the campaign. But unlike his opponent, the “Hillbilly Elegy” author was a forceful critic of the former president in 2016 and early in the Trump Presidency. Vance’s past comments on Trump ranged from calling the ex-president an “idiot” in a tweet, to referring to him as “America’s Hitler” in a text to a friend.

But the two men appeared to put the past behind them at a rally over the weekend, with Trump forgiving the “bad s***” Vance said about him and Vance admitting he was wrong. “I wasn’t always nice, but the simple fact is, he’s the best president of my lifetime,” Vance told the crowd about Trump.

According to reports, Vance won the courtship for Trump’s endorsement with help from two powerful allies: Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr. and Silicon Valley investor Peter Thiel.

Trump Jr. had appeared with Vance at fundraisers prior to his father’s endorsement and appeared personally close to the candidate. Now with his father’s blessing, Trump Jr. is joining Vance on a barnstorming tour of Ohio in the final days of the campaign.

Vance has long been one of Thiel’s favorite emerging politicians, and the billionaire investor pumped $3.5 million more into a pro-Vance super PAC, Protect Ohio Values, following Trump’s endorsement. Thiel was an early backer of Vance, helping launch his run last year with a $10 million initial cash infusion into Protect Ohio Values.

Mandel, while continuing to stump, insists that he and his campaign will be the victors on May 3. In an expression of his Trumpian bonafides, the former Ohio official has been traveling with former Trump national security adviser Michael Flynn, who endorsed Mandel and called Trump’s endorsement of Vance a “mistake” by the former president.

Mandel is also bringing Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) along with him to campaign in the final days of the race. Cruz was one of Trump’s most competitive primary opponents in 2016 and later became one of the former president’s allies. The Texas senator endorsed Mandel in early April, calling the Ohio republican “a proven fighter for our American way of life, a champion for the unborn, and a stalwart advocate for our religious liberties.”

Mandel was questioned on the campaign trail last week about why he thought he failed at securing Trump’s backing. “I’m confident we’re going to win this primary May 3, and I look forward to working with President Trump to beat the Democrats in November,” he said. He gave the same answer when asked if he’s seen any data showing him trouncing Vance.

Gibbons is also publicly optimistic about his chances. “We haven’t changed our plans,” Gibbons told The Washington Examiner last week. “It just added a different dimension to the race. … We still think we have a trajectory.”

The views expressed in this opinion piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent those of The Daily Wire.